Monday, January 11, 2016

That's what they all SAY!



"XXX is now at 2011 levels. I don't think it'll reach 2008 levels. Can buy now!"
Low can go lower. There were many who said STI 3000 was a super solid support. Well, we're at 2800s now.

Many thought M1 will never go below $3 as it is not the GFC now, well, looked what happened. Mr Market never cared about what we think the support level should be. 

"Those who think the stock market will recover please buy the stock. Those who think there's more to fall, please short. Put the money where your mouth is"
Except, it isn't. Just because I support multi-racial marriage doesn't mean that I'll have to marry a person of another race now to prove my point.

I may wait on the sidelines despite the massive rout because:
  1. I've yet to hit my planned levels to deploy my ammunition
  2. I may not have enough war chest to deploy now
  3. The stocks I'm interested in may not be attractive yet.
  4. I may have hit my preferred invested percentage. Some may prefer to be 100% invested while others prefer some buffer in case shit hits the fan and they have more to average down.
Not buying any stock during this period doesn't mean I've to short. There're fifty shades of grey.



"XXX will never fall! Ah gong will definitely rush in a bail out. You think they'll let XXX fall?"
Yup, definitely, the possibility of some support from G may be high, but that doesn't mean that it's a good buy.

Sembcorp Industries may be saved by the G, but at what levels? What if G steps in and aid when the price falls to $1, but what about those who bought SCI at $3-4?

What if they didn't step in to help? There's no 100% assurance they will.



"STI fell 15% during 2015. Now 2016 began with an ugly start. See la, more kudos to the 70% who voted"
I'm sorry. You may want to make friends with Mr Ngeng. If you're having those mindsets, then perhaps the world of investment may be too daunting for you to comprehend.

"I'm buying whatever XXX is having now! They/He made money, I'll never go wrong!"
If you're following buy calls merely by mimicking others, then you may be in for a wild ride; one that may never bring you back safely.

Whatever someone buys may be a great company, but it may not be a great buy now (read: valuation).

You need to always, always do your homework. Following Temasek or any other bloggers may not necessarily be good calls. Your risk appetite is different from the rest, don't just follow blindly.

If you want to follow blindly, then don't blame anyone when the traffic lights turn red and you still follow blindly behind.

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